Polls Prediction: Newark by-election

If you live in Newark, you cannot have avoided the bombardment of leaflets through your letter box, the biggest atempted siege by parliamentarians since the Civil War and the array of journalists trying to keep up with everything.

We’ve had four Prime Ministerial visits along with appearances from George Osborne, Boris Johnson, William Hague, Michael Gove, Eric Pickles, Jeremy Hunt and Theresa May. Sorry if I missed any Tories off the list.

From the opposition we’ve had Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Harriet Harman all from Labour as well as Labour’s campaign manager, Chris Bryant MP.

We’ve also seen the leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage as well as Green Party leader, Natalie Bennett.

But the visits will all come to an end tomorrow as the major party leaders can go back to not having to act like they care about Newark and Sherwood constituency.

Looking at the polls, the EU election results and speaking to people around the town, here are my predictions on how the outcome of the election will look:

1st – Robert Jenrick – Conservative (with a narrow victory and a much reduced majority)

2nd – Roger Helmer – UKIP (UKIP won the EU election in Newark and Helmer got elected as an MEP. Will just about fall short.)

3rd – Michael Payne – Labour (I think they may lose a few votes to both UKIP and the Tories as traditional Labour voters vote Tory to prevent a UKIP victory.)

4th – Paul Baggaley – Independent (A well known campaigner for Newark hospital and may attract support from those who really feel let down by professional politics.)

5th – David Watts – LibDems (Will narrowly beat the Greens despite a poor EU showing. I think he did tremendously well in the hustings.)

Whether I’m right or not, we shall see after tomorrow polling. Get voting everyone!


One thought on “Polls Prediction: Newark by-election

  1. After the EU elections in Newark I wouldn’t be surprised if the polls read:
    1. UKIP
    2. Labour
    3. Conservative
    4. Independent
    5. Liberal Democrats.

    But let’s see what tomorrow brings!

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